The company cannot reliably evaluate a technology for which no experience yet exists
The company cannot reliably evaluate a technology for which no experience yet exists
Even the largest company is not obligated to have the competence for a balanced evaluation of the newest technological frontier.
The reason is simple: expertise is built on experience, and experience appears after practice. If a technology changes faster than the organization manages to complete a full implementation cycle, stable expertise may not exist within the company.
A vicious circle arises:
a decision requires proof β proof requires practice β practice requires budget and permission β budget and permission require proof.
Therefore, the company rationally postpones many risky directions until someone else reduces the uncertainty.
This is not a sign of business stupidity. On the contrary, the business is protecting a working system. But this is precisely why the corporate environment is often poorly suited for a specialist whose task is to explore a field before proven experience emerges.
A new type of futurist must be able to work in this gap between the already observed signal and the institutional knowledge that does not yet exist.